Deep Sleepers For The Rest Of The Season Fantasy Football 2015 Most Over-Valued Fantasy Football Players

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2015 Most Over-Valued Fantasy Football Players

Over-valued fantasy football players aren’t necessarily players who will struggle this season. They are players who are being drafted significantly lower in the draft than players at the same position versus their projected output. Successful fantasy football team owners are owners who recognize value in each round and draft accordingly. There is no set method for which positions to draft in each round or which players to draft in each round. As always, know your scoring system and let it dictate your draft strategy, and be flexible about your strategy so you can make adjustments on the fly based on how the draft unfolds so you can identify value in players still available.

Assuming a standard fantasy football scoring system, we’re going to cite players that we see drafted much higher than other players at their position. Currently, the following are the most valuable fantasy football players of all time, according to their average draft position.

QB: Peyton Manning (Denver) – Peyton started to show his age at the end of 2014. He was still the third highest scoring QB last season, but that won’t be the case this year and he is being drafted as the third QB. Manning is a bit slower, throws more INTs, the Broncos rely more on their run game and Payton has lost some weapons. Wes Welker and Julian Thomas are gone and RB CJ Anderson is on the way out. I still expect 4000 yards and 30 TDs from Peyton, but you can get that kind of production later in the draft from countless other QBs… QBs who are much smaller and more mobile than the 39-year-old Manning.

RB: Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) – There were many who thought Stewart Cane would enter his own final season and that would springboard him to a successful 2015. Sure, he averaged 100 ypg in his last 4 and the Panthers let RB DeAngelo Williams go, but I don’t buy it. He has just one season of over 200 carries due to injuries and has already tweaked his ankle this summer. If you decide he’s worth the risk, be sure to also grab Cameron Artis-Payne to plug in on switchover day.

WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo) – Sammy Watkins is as talented as a receiver in the AFC East, but you wouldn’t notice it this season. Kyle Orton was a serviceable QB, but he’s retired and the list of QBs now in Buffalo makes one cringe; Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. Coach Rex Ryan has dealt with this situation before and I guarantee you he will try to win the ball with the run and let his defense do a lot of the work. Also, Sammy is coming off hip surgery that definitely won’t help. The NFL is full of quality WRs so don’t spend a pick on Watkins as it could be a wasted pick.

TE Julius Thomas (Jacksonville) – Julius is very talented but may never see the production he had in Denver again. Of course, he has 46 million reasons not to be too upset about it. Thomas’ biggest value has always come in the form of TDs. Because Denver had so much talent, he was never relied upon as a catch/yardage-heavy option. Now, Jacksonville is starved of receiving talent, so that could mean Thomas makes up for his drop in TD receptions with more catches and yards, but it could also mean he faces double-teams. It’s too risky to consider taking him in the single-digit rounds when there could be half a dozen tight ends drafted in the double-digit rounds, or better.

K Stephen Gostkowski (New England) – Gostkowski was the NFL’s leading kicker last season so he should be the highest drafted kicker, right? Well, I agree, but why take any kicker before your last or second-to-last round? Philly K Cody Parker was only 2 field goals behind Gostkowski in points, and no one is looking to take him at WR4 or RB4. Fill your bench before taking the kicker.

D Seattle – Just like the kicker, wait for your defense. Unless you have a strong scoring system that heavily rewards defense, the difference in points between top dozen defenses is too small to consider defending in single-digit rounds. Seattle got a lot of press and went to two straight Super Bowls, but they weren’t the highest-scoring defense in fantasy last year, despite having ADP in single-digit rounds. In fact, in some formats, they were the 7-9th highest scoring defense in 2014. Before I take the kicker, I always start two rounds first and grab my first defense and then grab my second defense. The top protection fluctuates every year. Who would have thought Philly would have had the highest scoring fantasy defense last season?

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