Do You Get To Pick Your Team On Flag Football Football Betting Tips – Money Management

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Football Betting Tips – Money Management

The quest for profit does not end once you find the best football betting tips. There is still much to be done to ensure consistent profitability. Money management is just as important as using the right football betting tips.

However, in the rush to earn their money, most people overlook this important aspect of football betting. So what is money management? Let’s put it in simple terms: you are betting on two football matches. You know one will make a profit 80% of the time and the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You want to bet more money on a match with an 80% chance of profit, don’t you? That is money management.

It’s basically managing your money to counter risk. So logic dictates that you should risk less money on risky bets and more money on strong bets. This may seem common sense to you, but it is often overlooked.

Now the next question is: How do we measure how much to keep the team? The most common method is to use the same amount (level stake) on each selection. This may work in the long term, but in the short term you have to watch out for long losing streaks from high priced football tips. Losing four or five in a row can quickly deplete your bank. So it is better to find a different approach.

Another approach suggested by many is the Kelly criterion. However, Kelly requires you to know the probability of winning. The bet size is then determined by converting the price on the first offer to the probability. You then need to estimate the probability of winning your bet. The difference between the sports book’s price probability and your probability must be positive. If it’s negative, you should drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next game. The bet size is then calculated using this difference in probabilities. A large difference would suggest a large investment and a small difference would suggest a small investment.

Now as you can imagine, the average person cannot predict his probability of winning football predictions. So this method is not very useful for him. Yes, mathematicians and professionals rave about this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it’s great in theory – but it fails in practice. If fails for at least 90% of people who try to use it, and I’m guessing that includes you and me.

Instead I prefer to use the average price available. Sports books have studied the matches thoroughly and it is not often that their prices are wrong. So why not use it to your advantage? It makes your enemies their weakness their greatest strength. Yes, I know upsets happen, but if you look at sports book prices over a long period of time, you’ll see that if they quote an outcome at even money, that outcome will be closer to 50%.

So using this as the true probability of the outcome we can accurately calculate how much to invest on each football tip.

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