College Football Teams That Are Favored To Win This Weekend Football Pools – Some Basic Elements in a Strategy to Optimise Your Chances

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Football Pools – Some Basic Elements in a Strategy to Optimise Your Chances

The results in certain football pool coupons/match numbers are random, but in individual matches where the strength of teams is measured and compared, in the circumstances I can identify, they are not random.

Let’s compare pools to roulette. Many will see roulette as a random gambling game. It certainly isn’t, at least from the casino’s point of view. The ‘house’ – that is, the casino – has an edge. In Europe, that edge is 2.70%, set by law, but that’s all that’s needed in the long run to ensure the house makes a profit.

So, the basic approach to winning in football pool is to make sure you have an edge – that is, the odds of winning are slightly biased by your odds.

Football teams in general play a wide range of games, although not all results are consistent with form, which makes it work for football pool companies. I claim that it is possible to identify strategies that optimize the odds of winning.

Of course, to win the ‘jackpot’ on British football pools – the absolute maximum prize – you need to have 8 draws in a row and only 8 draws on the coupon, and of course, you can only be one. That line that week. The odds on that are very long – picking just 8 draws out of 16 matches is 451 million to 1.

So, what are the basic elements of strategy to improve one’s chances of winning?

One factor is the manner in which the entry is kept. Specific plans and permits are important. These are ways to put multiple lines on a weekly entry, offering different levels of ‘coverage’ and ‘guarantee’, as measured by your budget and risk-taking attitude. It’s a whole sub-genre of its own, with many followers for both reasons and many arguments. Strong cases on each side – and that means the difference is marginal, with specific and limited guarantees and fully permitted plans offering a 100% guarantee (if you’ve chosen an 8 score draw in your entry of course) but fewer matches being covered. given budget.

Just as the house has a long run edge in roulette, winning football pool is important to watch. potential Long term opportunities. This calls for patience. The week you didn’t do it, you would have won. You have to survive. A ‘percentage’ approach is essential. So, persistence is another element of strategy.

After all, one of Sun Tzu’s guiding principles, in short, was always to fight over territory. you is selected. If we think about our analogy with the casino, would the casino open the roulette table one night when its statistical edge was absent?

Probably not, although they can look at it in the long term and keeping their clients happy. After all, big wins are good for their marketing even if they are not good for their profits.

So, to optimize your long run edge on the pools, don’t waste your stake in tournaments where teams are less likely to form, for example the FA Cup (take the British example). Unless, of course, you want to do it for fun! After all, many punters play roulette just for fun and don’t seriously expect to win. This is another important element of the strategy.

Finally, I hinted at form in the first paragraph. This is the final piece in the strategic jigsaw. Identify a way to measure the playing style of teams. You can then compare form ratings match by match and rule out clearly one-sided matches. This is the most important element in the strategy.

So, in summary, some basic elements of strategy to optimize your chances boil down to:

1. Use a plan or permit that maximizes your choice of coverage within your budget.

2. Take a long run view and be patient.

3. Be selective about which week you play pool, to maximize your chances of playing to build a team.

4. Use a selection approach that measures team performance and enables you to eliminate clearly lopsided matches or games.

These are the four key elements of a strategy to optimize the odds in your favor.

Copyright (c) 2009 Phil Marks

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