Detroit Lions Football Schedule For The Rest Of The Season NFL Preseason: Patience & Objectivity

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NFL Preseason: Patience & Objectivity

I’m not one to watch handicapping trends, but what do we find after the first two weeks of the NFL preseason? Games have gone down by a total count of 20-11-1! It is an under paradise so far. However, before we jump into each spot this weekend, note that the Unders were 12-4-1 in Week 1, but just 8-7 in Week 2.

Suddenly they’re not so shiny underneath. Part of what’s happening is oddsmakers adapt. The Detroit Lions have a new offensive scheme, a new quarterback and a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz. In contrast to last season’s boredom (and West Coast’s unproductive offense), Martz brings a more vertical passing attack to the table. The Lions’ total was seven and a half in Week 1, but it was 33 in Week 2. They held the total down in a 20-13 win in the opener, but fell short in a 20-16 win last weekend. Only 3 more points were scored in their game, but it was enough to get the total by adjustment.

Another thing that has been happening is that the defense has really outpaced the offense this season. With quarterbacks learning their receiver timing patterns, offensive linemen learning their blocking assignments, and everyone learning new plays, offenses spend a lot of time in jail. Some teams are learning a new playbook as the NFL has 10 new head coaches.

Week 2 saw an increase in scoring. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens this week, as teams give their starters their biggest workout in Week 3 of the preseason. Overall, having the offense on the field longer than the defensive starters helps the offense develop more.

For perspective, a year ago the Unders went 9-7 in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, then tied 8-8 in Week 2. In Week 3, with the starters playing more, the unders still ruled at 10-6, while the overs returned to 10-6 in Week 4. The starters don’t play that much in Week 4. This is why tracking trends and patterns can be difficult and sometimes confusing. Better to be patient and use disability objectivity.

It is more important to look at each individual team. For example, the Cleveland Browns have many problems on offense, with a trio of young quarterbacks and serious offensive line injuries. The Miami Dolphins have given up a ton of passing yards in two preseason games and realize they have an injury problem in the secondary. Rookie Jason Allen split time between safety and cornerback last week as coach Nick Saban said, “Because we don’t have any cornerbacks left!”

The Redskins are 0-2 SU/ATS in the preseason. Joe Gibbs was upset in the postgame news conference after the loss to the Jets. “I care about the team,” Gibbs said. “As a team you want to play well, and we didn’t. I couldn’t pick one positive.” Washington also has a new offensive system brought in by Al Saunders from Kansas City. Saunders’ play-calling is conservative and his unit’s execution is inconsistent. Such pieces are more important for finding wagering angles than any betting trends.

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