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Top 2010 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players
The key to winning fantasy football leagues is the ability to identify and ignore overvalued players. “Slumpers” are NFL players who are drafted in the top 3 at their position and draft like players drafted in the double-digit rounds. These players are also known as “draft killers”, especially if they are first or second round players. The key to winning your fantasy football league is finding players who produce on a consistent basis. You can offset a slumper with a sleeper, but if you see any signs of a possible slump, it’s best to just avoid dead weight. There are times when signs are not present. A good example of this from 2009 is Matt Forte. No one expected him to drop 300 yards and 8 total TDs from his 2008 rookie season. The 2009 drop-off was not surprising since Michael Turner recorded 376 carries in 2008. Below are the top overvalued fantasy football players by position.
2010 fantasy football slumps
QB: Matt Schaub (HOUSTON) – As tempting as it is to keep Brett Favre at the position, he didn’t sign with the Vikings for 2010, even when the sun was about to rise. Therefore, it should be excluded. Our pick for QB is Matt Schaub. He has gone as high as the third round in many of our drafts. There are plenty of quality RBs and WRs available at this point in the draft. Schaub is too fragile to spend a pick on him here. Somehow, he lasted the entire season in 2009, but to expect that again in 2010 would be foolish. Furthermore, his success is largely tied to WR Andre Johnson. Johnson entered the 2010 season with the Texans not terminating his current contract and giving him a large bonus and top WR cash prize. This situation distracts the player so Schaub will suffer if Johnson’s head is fully in the game.
RB: Steven Jackson (St. Louis) – There is no player in the NFL that I admire more than SJax. He is among the worst teams in the league and is the only player who has made the Rams even close to being a professional football team. Still, he’s not complaining about his contract or the lack of talent around him. He just takes the ball and punishes defenders. However, it does result in constantly running into 8-person queues. That will remain the case this year as the Rams break in a rookie QB. Jackson threw for over 1,400 yards last year, while carrying the ball 326 times and catching 51 passes. That’s a lot of action and he only found the end zone on 4 carries. The last time he was exposed to this much activity was in 2006. In 2007, his yardage dropped by 33%, his TDs by 62% and his receptions by 42%. You can see the toll it took on him in 2009 as he totaled 184 yards, 7 receptions and zero TDs in his final three games. Jackson is being drafted in the first round. You can’t risk your top pick running out of steam in the playoffs and sniffing the end zone.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona) – Fitz may be the most talented wide receiver in the NFL. However, he will catch passes from one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league; Matt Leinart. Leinart was the full-time starter in 2006 and had the worst season of Fitzgerald’s career (69/946/6). Last year, when Leinart started against Tennessee, Fitz was targeted 5 times and had only 4 passes for 34 yards and no TDs. With the dual running threat between Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, I expect numbers similar to 2006 for Fitzgerald, which is definitely not worth your first or second draft pick.
TE: Greg Olson (Chicago) – Olsen enjoyed his best season as a pro last year; Increasing his receptions, yards and TDs (to 8). There are two issues working against him this year. First, the Bears hired Mike Martz. Martz has been known to forget that tight end is an actual offensive position. Many of his plays require quick reads and throws. Olsen is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, though he needs time to loosen up. Another problem is that Chicago found themselves with a receiver on their roster. Devin Hester and Johnny Knox turned in remarkable numbers last year compared to their expectations, and Martz’s offense will thrive this year. Even better, just when the league thought it had a good defense of the Bears’ passing scheme (see Cutler’s interception), along came Devin Aromashodu. In Aromashodu’s (how fun is it to say “Aromashodu”?!) last 4 games, he caught 22 passes for 282 yards and 4 TDs. Those three receivers remind Martz of the trio he had in St. Louis. Can anyone name a Rams tight end from the early 2000s?
D: Pittsburgh Steelers – In 2009 the steel curtain was slightly tarnished. They gave up 306 points and committed only 22 turnovers. You could say a lot of this was due to the defense missing Troy Polamalu. But, the fact is that they are getting old and also a bit crotchety. LB LaMarr Woodley has repeatedly expressed displeasure with his contract. During the 2009 season, he lacked his usual killer instinct; Finally losing games against Chicago, Cincinnati, Kansas City and Oakland which they usually haven’t in the past. Super Bowl hangover? Possibly, but I no longer see this defense as a top-5 defense.
K: Choose one (All) – Any kicker created before the last 2 rounds. In reality, the best way to evaluate a kicker is his bye week. Just take one kicker and one kicker and then pick the one available in the latest bye week so you can forget about the situation for as long as possible.
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