Did The Experts Pick Week 10 Nfl Football Winners Yet Football Betting – How to Select 3 Draws Or 5 Aways – Part 1

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Football Betting – How to Select 3 Draws Or 5 Aways – Part 1

Generally, most football teams perform according to their recent results history. This means that in general they lose against good teams and win against poor teams. When the season settles down and ‘all other things are equal’, the quality of teams is reflected in their position in the league.

Now, we can take the basic league positions as a guide to build on, but this can change from day to day for reasons unrelated to the team – other teams’ results for example. Therefore, we need to have a slightly more sophisticated system for evaluating team performance that takes into account recent results (but how recent?). That’s the first part.

Then, we need a way to assess each match in advance to arrive at a likely outcome, ideally able to put a number to it so we can compare one match to another and decide which home is more likely to win. Draw or away win. In this way we can arrive at a ranking for each of the 49 matches on British coupons (which may of course include Australian football matches during the British summer). That’s the second part.

An analysis of the 2009–2010 British football season gives us an idea of ​​what the average results are. Throughout the season (40 pool coupons), 45% of matches were home wins, 26% were away wins and 27% were draws (score and non-score draws combined).

So, as a way to compare team performance, matches and above stats, we can start ‘home in’ and where the draws might be (or, for that matter, home and away, if that’s your betting preference).

Overall these are just averages – each week will be different and there will be some unexpected results.

So, whether it’s triple chance or fixed odds, we need a way to spread our bets to increase our chances of winning. We do this using plans or params, which allow us to cover many combinations. After all, predicting 3 draws out of 49 matches on a random basis is a long shot (the odds are over 18,000 to 1). In a 10 horse race, you have odds of 10/1 to pick the winner. With fixed odds betting, the bookie will have adjusted the payout odds for possible outcomes (initially) and the odds will be reduced depending on the stakes placed by other punters. So, in practice we can say 10 cents per combination, that’s a big stake for 18,000 lines and we won’t win it due to fixed odds (even if the bettor bet). If the results say 8 draws there will in all probability be multiple winning lines.

However, if we bet 3 draws from 10 matches (120 independent bets) or 5 away from 10 (252 independent bets), we are likely to get better odds. This is because the odds are longer; However, if we choose our 10 draw predictions carefully, we can reduce the odds significantly and still have many winning lines and the possibility of making a profit.

(c) 2010 Phil Marks

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