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Tennis Betting – Tips For Exchange Betting on Tennis Matches
By choosing tennis as your favorite sport to bet on, you have already given yourself an “edge” against other sports bettors. To use this “edge” to consistently make money, however, you first need to understand two basic principles. Then apply the power of mathematics.
Betting on tennis (or betting on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker is sheer folly. The expression “you can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; You just can’t beat the bookies over time. This is because the odds are always calculated mathematically in favor of the bettor. Everyone knows (or needs to know) that the mathematical “edge” the bookie has against the punter is what he needs to make a profit to stay in business.
Computer technology has given rise to a new form of betting, called “exchange betting” or “matched betting”. There is no bookie to beat with “Betting Exchange”; In other words, there is no middle man. Each punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere in the internet ether. Any punter (or “merchant”) can make a “back” bet that a player or team will win and/or a “lay” bet that a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can choose to act as a general bettor and/or bookmaker.
With exchange betting the odds are not set by a third-party or middle-man; They are set by the punters themselves, who make requests that they are willing to bet on (if they wish to act as normal bookmakers) or offer odds that they are willing to bet on (if they wish). working as a bookmaker).
As “back” bettors gradually decrease their requested odds and “lay” bettors gradually increase their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting web site matches all lay bets with all back bets. The accounts of “backers” or “layers” are then automatically credited with their winnings after a few seconds depending on the outcome of the event.
Obviously, the technology to provide this kind of “fair” betting service has to be paid in part. This payment is taken in the form of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an event (or “market”). That is, commission is only charged on any positive difference between winnings and losses in the same event.
This betting system is as close to a completely fair betting environment as it is possible to achieve.
Very few betting exchanges exist, however, probably because exchange betting software is so complicated and therefore expensive. The largest of the exchange betting web sites is Betfair, with almost 90% of the market at the time of writing. Others are Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is by far the most popular because it was the first to offer a “totally fair” betting environment and is trusted to perform accurately and instantly.
So, why does tennis betting give you an “edge” over betting on other sports? Although the answer is simple, even those who regularly bet on tennis are often overlooked. And if you’ve never bet on tennis, you certainly haven’t realized the importance of the tennis scoring system on betting.
Consider this fundamental difference between the tennis scoring system and perhaps any other sport you can think of.
In other sports and games the trailing player or team must close the points gap by winning one point for each point already lost to catch up with the leader. Only then can they move forward. This fact seems obvious.
In tennis, however, a trailing player or team can lose the first set 6-0 (possibly with a 24-point deficit). That team can then win the second set by a very narrow margin, 7-6 in a tiebreak, winning the set by very few points (or even winning fewer points than their opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).
As soon as the trailing player or team wins the second set, both sides suddenly have equal points, even if one player or team has won many more points than the opponent.
This discrepancy often has a serious psychological impact on one or both sides, affecting the way they play for the next few minutes and thus the betting odds requested and offered by match punters. However, this is another aspect of tennis betting that could be the subject of another article. This article deals with the mathematical aspects of tennis betting and how to win money with this knowledge.
How to Win in Tennis Betting
Now that you are aware of these two basic principles, how can you use them to your advantage when betting tennis?
The key is not to just be a “pro” or “layer”, just bet on the final outcome of an event. If you do, you’ll lose over time, because there’s always a slight difference between “back” odds and “rhythm” odds — there has to be, otherwise no one will be motivated to offer odds and there’ll be no betting at all. Combine that with the fact that you pay on your net winnings commission and the “edge” is against you (although it’s not as big as traditional bookmakers).
The secret to winning in tennis betting is to have both a “pro” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event. This is another aspect of betting that distinguishes exchange betting web sites from traditional bookies. At a betting exchange you can back or place a bet at any time during an event, right up to the last second or final point. This is known as “in-play” betting.
As in-play betting is allowed, the odds vary for each opposing side, as events progress, depending on whether (according to the punters) one side or the other will emerge victorious. The trick is to back bet on certain odds on one side and then back bet on better odds on that side (or a back bet on the other side) as luck changes and the odds shift in your favor. If you can achieve this, you will win your bet overall regardless of the outcome of the event — a true “win-win” situation.
Why bet on tennis and not other sports?
In addition to principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is ideal for such “swing” betting, as the odds fluctuate after each point is played. So there are very short swings on one side and then on the other side. This does not happen in soccer, for example, where goals are very rare and one goal shifts the advantage suddenly and massively to the scoring side.
Furthermore, a tennis match can have only one of two outcomes; There cannot be a draw or a tie; And only one of two players or teams can win. In a horse race, for example, the winner may come from a large number of runners.
The more possible outcomes there are in the equation, the harder it is to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and horse racing remain the two most popular sports for betting, perhaps for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to make money betting on tennis than on any other sport.)
“In-Play” Betting or “Pre-Event” Betting?
Now that you’ve — hopefully — understood and mastered the basics of exchange betting and the specifics of tennis scoring, it’s time to explain the details of how you can win at tennis betting.
As mentioned earlier, the secret to winning in tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but to bet at different times during the event, at different places, as luck changes and the odds change. your wish This can be done with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.
One method used in in-play betting is called “scalping”. As its name suggests, scalping involves cutting small profits by backing or laying at just the right moment as the odds go slightly in your favor, perhaps when a player scores two or three points in a row, and repeating the process over and over again. The biggest drawback of scalping is that it is very time consuming and full of mental and physical stress. Not only do you have to pay full attention to what is happening during the match through live video transmission, but you also have to catch the exact right moment to bet on, which is actually made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange. Betting software between the time you place a bet and the time it is accepted.
We won’t go into detail about it here because, as mentioned earlier, this article is about winning with math, not by the sweat of your brow. The mathematical aspect involves betting before the event starts and not during the event. That is pre-event betting.
Math doesn’t lie!
Some are tennis betting “systems”, some are completely manual, some are using software programs, some of which are extremely complicated. From the author’s (mathematician’s) investigation, they all, at times, require the input of the bettor’s “probability factor”. This probability factor usually gives you the chance that your “balance” bet (“lay” bet on the “backed” side or “back” bet on the opposite side) will trigger, giving you a “win-win”. “The situation mentioned earlier.
So, how to determine the value of this probability factor? This, dear reader, is the crux of the matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.
Until now, it seems, this probability factor has been determined by the sheer experience of a few seasoned professional gamblers or the trial-and-error guesswork of fewer. No wonder many punters lose or don’t win as much as they could because they don’t know the exact value they need to optimize their bets!
Accuracy is very important when determining the probability factor to increase the chances of winning consistently. A web search for a tool to calculate it proved negative. So the author created one that not only covers all aspects of exchange betting but also features tennis scoring system and for want of a better name it is called Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, by entering only the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the author to consistently earn more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.
As a parallel test, the author also bets on “group feeling” in sufficient numbers to establish a trend. This resulted in a loss of 10% of the working capital (or “bank”).
Other tests were conducted using the Abacus Exchange betting calculator, betting on shorter games such as American football, snooker and darts (only very long matches, otherwise the swings are too large). Results here include commissions won only; Therefore, it is not beneficial.
It seems, then, that the particular mathematical formula or algorithm discussed here (which is quite complicated) works well in conjunction with tennis’ unique scoring system.
As a scientist, the author believes that it is possible to consistently win in sports betting over time only when the following factors are present:
1. An exchange betting web site is used, not a conventional betting web site. (Beware of the many sites that appear in search engine results for “exchange betting” that pretend to offer exchange betting! Make sure their software system enables you to withdraw and bet any odds you want against other punters, not against the house. . If in doubt , check if their website looks like the one on Betfair.)
2. Tennis is a sport because of its unique scoring system.
3(a) You learn and experience in-play betting and are prepared to spend almost all of your time glued to a computer screen following each match, sometimes more than one at a time.
3(b) You use software that tells you the exact odds of asking and offering and placing pre-event betting odds within minutes, thus allowing you to carry on with your normal life.
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