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March Madness Odds and Sports Betting Tips: How To Win in the Big Dance, NCAA Tournament
In many cases, for example, the money that won you during the regular season will do so in March, but there are also many new angles to the money.
Pit in front of selection committee against Roxy and company
Barring the eighth-seeded ninth-seeded points, we still like to go with the lower-seeded favorites over the higher-seeded teams. That being said with the caveat of excluding games above four in which seeding can be flip-flopped anyway, there are tournaments where this does not apply.
But we’d happily put our money on linemakers exploiting false high seeds.
Emotion in the short run, talent in the long run
We have a rare case of betting on half-time lines that actually seem too obvious to be true. But people’s temptation to bet on big chalk has kept it from being a cash cow for the average Joe. Going with number 16 in the first half has definitely got my mates and I’ve made some good extra changes over the years.
Before making a final decision, I scout the game on Dish, but often I bet on the top seed in the second half. For the most part, bottom seeds play in the biggest games of their lives. The senior team plays in many cases the final match of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase for scouts from foreign leagues.
After all, there isn’t a guy among the lower-seeded teams who hasn’t dreamed of starring in the college hoops version of Lake Placid or being part of one of the biggest upsets in Big Dance history.
All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually go a long way to make up for the lack of talent. But having more than 40 minutes of talent and depth is what Dick Vitale would call a “blowout city baby” in the second half.
Plus if the bottom seed makes the game interesting for a while, it will wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half represented an epiphany for a team that spent the first 20 minutes more anxious to play two days later. Then the expected bubble bursts.
All delusions of grandeur come crashing down on the Squid State once the fast, strong deep top seed goes the inevitable 10-0. An emotional roller coaster makes its descent. Sixteen a side in the first half and a huge chalk in the second.
Beware of the “guards dominate” trap
“It’s a guard dominate game” I hear all the time. Then the conclusion of the result, “handicap the guards first” generally follows. This belief is not so much a myth as it is a matter of persuasion rather than deductive reasoning.
The simple fact is that there are far more guards than centers so the more guard-oriented teams will be ahead based on pure numbers alone. Of course there will be more guard-oriented teams whose bubbles will also burst at pick time. In fact look at the bottom of every conference and you’ll find plenty of guard-oriented teams.
Truth be told, the teams with the big men are the teams that will have the biggest mismatches – literally and figuratively. However, guard-giving lovers don’t quite fall into the classic go-against trap. In fact, smart players handicap their teams overall.
Sure, teams with great three-point shooters are the best “shot in the dark” teams on the money line, but conversely, if they cool off, they can also be great against the “Pleasers.” They are high risk/high return, but also high return/low risk options.
Do not fall in love with seniors
It’s a simple phrase: the teams with the best players win, with few exceptions the best players don’t last until their senior year, thus the best teams are not seniors.
This undeniable truth is becoming more and more evident every year. I will take a team with talent over a team with experience.
In fact I’d rather have a senior team than a young team that has a lot of upside and nothing to lose.
On the contrary, I always advise against betting against a more experienced team. If you’re talking about a team that’s about a ten-point dog (that’s a team that doesn’t quite match but is getting decent points) then there’s enough reason to bet to cover them, if not blindly.
The assumption is to play in organized ball and showcase in one’s last game
European scouts may inspire a competitive team to claw their way to the end, but I’d rather invest in a team like Arizona, which has less postseason recognition but more potential.
Eye-catching team fade
The first question the so-called “experts” ponder after the pairings are announced is “who will be the dark horse teams”. So often on one network, Billy Packer,
Dick Vitale on another, Monday’s USA Today and many media hacks and talking heads pick the same team. One year they all love Eastern Michigan, the next Princeton.
Dark horse teams have an element of surprise and a “no respect” motivational factor. Once all the regurgitating paparazzi wonder what the flavor of March is, aren’t they dark horses anymore?
Not only is there no element of surprise, but what better way to insure his high-seeded team doesn’t overlook their opponent that the media has labeled their foe as one of the potential Cinderella teams?
In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzaga, with vision and an opponent unseen, three-time glass slipper-wielders, becomes an early cause now that for the first time they have to deal with the burden of high expectations.
Don’t talk yourself into betting every game
I understand that there are casual gamblers who place bets, as I like to call “lunch money” on games. As long as they’re risking money just for fun to make sure the game is fun for them, it’s harmless. And there’s always a happy book to help.
However, when it comes to betting from the bankroll, don’t feel like you have to bet on any game televised in your area. Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to watch a good investment. Don’t check the morning sports page to see what’s on your local channel and be convinced it’s the strongest game on the board. Also if you choose the sports bar option, you can get a Final Four caliber waitress. Just don’t let the wife know.
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