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Simple NFL Systems #40 – Favorites Of At Least 14 Points Coming Off A Big Win ATS
For those of you who like to bet on perennial Super-Bowl contenders: Here’s a pretty straight-forward NFL betting system that includes A favorite of at least 14 points 20-0 ATS in last 14 seasons and 3-0 ATS last year.
Spreads of at least 2 TDs aren’t as common as you might think: since 1994, there have only been 93 games involving 14+ points, and the favorites have compiled a rather mundane record of 46-47 ATS during this span.
Thanks to New England’s early dominance last season, 2007 saw the most 2-touchdown spreads in 15 years: a total of 13 games had a streak of at least 14 points. After getting burned in the first half of the season, linebackers caught up with the Patriots, and by season’s end, the odds were just 6-7 against the big numbers.
Now, before I go any further, it’s important to mention that trends or systems that involve short plays like this are less reliable at predicting future outcomes than trends that involve 100-200 plays.
Additionally, systems that only play on a fraction of the teams in the league (in this case, only 34.4% of teams have joined at one time or another) are also more susceptible to future declines.
That said, a small system like this that includes a limited number of relevant scenarios can be a useful tool for handicapping games that lack more significant trends or other important betting information. In other words: I don’t recommend basing choices completelyOn a trend of this nature, however, if you have to pick for any reason (ie office pool), a 54-56% chance of success (as this angle essentially provides) is better than nothing.
Now that I have raised the caution flag on the use of systems in this category, let’s get back to exploring the logic behind this particular trend.
Betting on big favorites is a habit usually associated with a large number of ‘squares’ who make wages every week and reveal their 46-47 ATS record, a surefire way to lose money over the long haul.
When we look at the big choices, they are A crucial win for ATS; However, we suddenly have a very advantageous situation on our hands.
Since 1994, favorites of at least 14 points have been closing Win by 14 points or more ATS are solid 21-7 ATS (75.0%) makes a profit of $1,330.00 when betting $110.00 to get $100.00 back on each event.
On the contrary, the big favorite key Failure to cover spread Less than a field goal in their previous game, or less, is disappointing 16-28 ATS in their next game–with A 2-5 ATS record last season.
The lesson here is fairly clear: play-on big favorites only as long as they still exceed the betting public’s expectations. As soon as the authority fails to cover the spread, discard them and move on to other opportunities. This pattern certainly applied to the Pats’ final season as it has to many other dominant teams over the last decade and a half.
There is actually a final secondary Condition that I want to add to this system and that is, where to remove the game Our heavy favorite rival has a better record outside of their division than in-in. Given that games with a 2-touchdown spread are more likely to be non-divisional match-ups than divisional, this alone can cause problems for a team that favors an opponent with a superior record in this position.
The NFL standings listed in newspapers or on the Internet usually do not specify a team’s ‘non-divisional’ record, so the easiest way to determine whether this last condition applies is to compare. Overall Win percentage with Departmental Winning percentage. A high percentage of overall wins clearly indicates that this team plays its best football against non-division opponents.
Once this last condition is added, the system’s record improves 20-0 ATS since 1994. Here are all the details, including the top 4 teams that have found themselves in this situation over the last 14 years.
(Notes: ASMR Means average spread margin rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than the average versus a negative line–weaker than the average. TDIS % There is a percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams hitting .500 or better and S.P.R The average spread for teams in this situation is (For more details, please consult page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)
System #40 Summary
Basic Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) >= favorite by 14 points.
2) ATS margin >= 14 in last game.
Secondary Conditions (Tightener)
1) Exclude opponents with overall WP >= divisional WP (DWP).
Top Teams: SF(4); NE(3); STL(3); BAL(2)
Total (since ’94): 20-0 ATS
2007 season: 3-0 ATS
2006 season: 0-0 ATS
2005 season: 2-0 ATS
2004 season: 0-0 ATS
Last 3 results. Select in parentheses
2007 WK7–NE 49 MIA 28 (NE -16) W
2007 WK5–NE 34 CLE 17 (NE -16.5) W
2007 WK3–NE 38 BUF 7 (NE -16.5) W .
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