Do You Get Money Out Of Doing A Football Pool How Do the Football Pools Differ From Fixed Odds Betting?

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How Do the Football Pools Differ From Fixed Odds Betting?

How is football pool betting different from other types of sports betting?

Consider traditional betting on a horse race or the outcome of a single football match. A punter (someone placing a bet) is quoted the odds by a bookie (‘bookie’, turf accountant etc.) either face-to-face, over the telephone or online. Now, the odds quoted when the price is first set are based on the bookie’s initial understanding of the odds of a given outcome.

As the event approaches, the odds quoted by the bookie will ‘drift out’ – ie, go long (say from 4/1 to 10/1) or short (say from 4/1 to 7/2). Obviously we’re using the UK Fractional Odds system here, not the US or European – it doesn’t change the principle though.

Now, this change in odds is purely the result of the bet received by the bookies and the money risked by the bookie. It has nothing to do with the ‘real probabilities’ (whatever they are) of the outcome of the event. The bettor is simply reducing the odds to protect himself (because he is taking too many bets on long odds that would be painful for him to lose) or increasing the odds on other horses to balance the bets on the lower priced horses by shifting the betting away. From favorite, again to protect himself or herself.

If a bookmaker runs out of book balance, perhaps from taking too many large bets, they will insure themselves by ‘lay-off’ – placing their own bets with other bookmakers to reduce their risk. The principles are the same in hedge funds and stock trading.

Of course, on a ‘soft day’, bookies may also offer generous odds as a way to increase business.

This means that if you bet on an event when the odds are first available, you will probably get realistic odds (from the bookie’s point of view) for the actual outcome of the event.

When a bet is placed, the punter knows in advance what the payout will be for a given outcome (regardless of when the bet is placed). The principle is the same for fixed odds betting on football matches. However, a football match has only four possible outcomes for the team you select (win, lose, score draw, score no draw), ignoring the void. So there is a 1 in 4 chance of predicting a correct single result on a random basis for a football match. For a horse race with 8 horses, the random odds for a single outcome prediction (win, lose) are 1 in 8 – a ‘place’ is really a 3 bet.

How is it different from pool and what are the odds of winning football pool?

In UK football pools, a punter is betting that a particular set of matches will produce a certain result (for example 8 draws or 11 wins in 49 matches). Odds are not fixed at the time of betting. There is no advance knowledge of the number of draws on a given coupon. In the 2008/2009 English season, there were 355 scores drawn on 42 coupons – an average of 8.4 scores drawn per coupon. Including no-score draws, the figure is 544 draws, an average of 12.8 draws per coupon. There were 12 or more draw games on 28 coupons.

The odds of predicting a single correct line of an 8 score draw when there are only 8 score draw results are 450 million to 1. This is a large number, but with a low cost per ‘line’ or bet and some careful form analysis, it is possible to reduce the odds to 3/1 at a reasonable level of stakes.

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