Do You Need To Be Big To Play American Football Betting Trends

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Betting Trends

I love match-ups and situational handicapping. This includes things like weaknesses, bad lines, homecomings and revenge spots. I’m not big on betting trends. Trends can be dangerous. Some novice sports bettors think, “This team has lost 3 straight against the odds, which means they are more likely to cover this game.” Well, you’ll have more reasons to support the team than things like that.

For example, Fresno State entered the Hawaii game two weeks ago as the home dog. Fresno hadn’t covered since late last season. Anyone watching the trend would think Fresno had this game covered, because they are for covers. That kind of simplistic thinking doesn’t cut it in the competitive world of sports handicapping.

For the record, Fresno got bombed again, 68-37 as a +3 home dog. So they went 0-6 against the spread this season. Okay, so maybe the next games will cover it, right? Now they are really due! The right factor is still strong as Fresno fails to cover again, this time as a +31 dog at La Tech, losing 38-6. OK, so they’re getting close, but try telling that to the guy at the betting window when you’re waving a losing ticket in his face. That won’t cut it!

I would suggest focusing more on things like match-ups and home/road play and current games rather than looking at trends. For example, on Sunday in the NFL I made a play on the visiting Atlanta Falcons in Cincinnati. In my analysis, I noted, “This game depends on who rules the trenches. Atlanta owns a league-leading 6.1 yards per rush, with the Eagles in second place at 5.2. Simply put, the Falcons run the ball on everyone. .

They have surpassed 220 rushing yards in 4 of 6 games. Cincinnati, on the other hand, allows 4.6 yards per carry, well above the league average of 4.0. So I expect the Falcons to control the clock and have good success moving the football. Cincinnati is supposed to have an explosive offense, but that hasn’t been the case this year. The Bengals average 5.1 yards per play, in line with the league wide 5.1 ypp average. Atlanta is averaging 5.5 yards per play on offense.

The Bengals have had a tough time offensively as of late. They have scored 17, 13 and 13 points in the last three games. What makes these numbers even stranger is that Carson Palmer has not been picked off in any of the last three games. In fact, they only have two turnovers in those games. So it’s not like mistakes are keeping them out of the end zone.” Atlanta has the personnel to trouble the Bengals’ offense and should have a big day running the football.” Cincy not only covered, but won the game.

See what I was looking at? First, notice what I wasn’t seeing: no trends! Second, I examine how the Bengals have been playing as of late, the inconsistencies on the field favoring the visitors, and the public perception that Cincy is an explosive offense. Cold, hard facts are more important to me than any gambling trend or “overdue factor”.

That’s the catch for trend bettors: When will this trend happen? It is impossible to tell based on the overdue trend factor alone. Successful sports handicapping involves many factors. It is wiser to look at as many factors as possible, such as home ground, weather, playing surface, coaching, strengths versus weaknesses, and venue for revenge. Winning ATS means finding all the pieces and finding multiple edges in the game, not just one angle.

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